Phenotypic plasticity increases exposure to extreme climatic events that reduce individual fitness.

Climate models, and empirical observations, suggest that anthropogenic climate change is leading to changes in the occurrence and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs). Effects of changes in mean climate on phenology, movement, and demography in animal and plant populations are well documented. In contrast, work exploring the impacts of ECEs on natural populations is less common, at least partially due to the challenges of obtaining sufficient data to study such rare events. Here, we assess the effect of changes in ECE patterns in a long-term study of great tits, near Oxford, over a 56-year period between 1965 and 2020. We document marked changes in the frequency of temperature ECEs, with cold ECEs being twice as frequent in the 1960s than at present, and hot ECEs being ~three times more frequent between 2010 and 2020 than in the 1960s. While the effect of single ECEs was generally quite small, we show that increased exposure to ECEs often reduces reproductive output, and that in some cases the effect of different types of ECE is synergistic. We further show that long-term temporal changes in phenology, resulting from phenotypic plasticity, lead to an elevated risk of exposure to low temperature ECEs early in reproduction, and hence suggest that changes in ECE exposure may act as a cost of plasticity. Overall, our analyses reveal a complex set of risks of exposure and effects as ECE patterns change and highlight the importance of considering responses to changes in both mean climate and extreme events. Patterns in exposure and effects of ECEs on natural populations remain underexplored and continued work will be vital to establish the impacts of ECEs on populations in a changing climate.

Social phenotype-dependent selection of social environment in wild great and blue tits: an experimental study.

There is growing evidence that individuals actively assess the match between their phenotype and their environment when making habitat choice decisions (so-called matching habitat choice). However, to our knowledge, no studies have considered how the social environment may interact with social phenotype in determining habitat choice, despite habitat choice being an inherently social process and growing evidence for individual variation in sociability. We conducted an experiment using wild great and blue tits to understand how birds integrate their social phenotype and social environment when choosing where and how to feed. We used programmable feeders to (i) record social interactions and estimate social phenotype, and (ii) experimentally manipulate the local density experienced by birds of differing social phenotype. By tracking feeder usage, we estimated how social environment and social phenotype predicted feeder choice and feeding behaviour. Both social environment and social phenotype predicted feeder usage, but a bird's decision to remain in a particular social environment did not depend on their social phenotype. By contrast, for feeding behaviour, responses to the social environment depended on social phenotype. Our results provide rare evidence of matching habitat choice and shed light on the dependence of habitat choice on between-individual differences in social phenotype.

Having a better home range does not reduce the cost of reproduction in Soay sheep.

A cost of reproduction may not be observable in the presence of environmental or individual heterogeneity because they affect the resources available to individuals. Individual space use is critical in determining both the resources available to individuals and the exposure to factors that mediate the value of these resources (e.g. competition and parasitism). Despite this, there has, to our knowledge, been little research to understand how between-individual differences in resource acquisition, caused by variation in space use, interact with environmental variation occurring at the population scale to influence estimates of the cost of reproduction in natural populations. We used long-term data from the St. Kilda Soay sheep population to understand how differences in age, relative home range quality, and average adult body mass, interacted with annual variation in population density and winter North Atlantic Oscillation index to influence over-winter survival and reproduction in the subsequent year, for females that had invested into reproduction to varying degrees. Our results suggest that Soay sheep females experience costs both in terms of future survival and future reproduction. However, we found little evidence that estimated costs of reproduction vary depending on relative home range quality. There are several possible causes for the lack of a relationship between relative home range quality and our estimate of the costs experienced by females. These include the potential for a correlation between relative home range quality and reproductive allocation to mask a relationship between home range quality and reproductive costs, as well as the potential for the benefit of higher quality home ranges being offset by higher densities. Nevertheless, our results raise questions regarding the presence or context-dependence of relationships between resource access and the estimated cost of reproduction.

Causes and consequences of an unusually male-biased adult sex ratio in an unmanaged feral horse population.

The adult sex ratio (ASR) is important within ecology due to its predicted effects on behaviour, demography and evolution, but research examining the causes and consequences of ASR bias have lagged behind the studies of sex ratios at earlier life stages. Although ungulate ASR is relatively well-studied, exceptions to the usual female-biased ASR challenge our understanding of the underlying drivers of biased ASR and provide an opportunity to better understand its consequences. Some feral ungulate populations, including multiple horse populations, exhibit unusually male-biased ASR. For example, research suggests that the feral horse Equus ferus caballus population on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada may exhibit a male-biased ASR. Such exceptions to the rule provide a valuable opportunity to reveal the contributions of environmental context and trait differences to ASR bias. We aimed to test for bias in Sable Island horse ASR, identify the demographic drivers of bias, and explore its demographic and social consequences. To do this, we used life history, movement and group membership information for hundreds of horses followed through a long-term individual-based study between 2007 and 2018. Sable Island horse ASR is male biased and this skew has increased over time, reaching 62% male in 2018. Our life table response experiment suggested that ASR skew was driven predominantly by male-biased adult survival. Further analyses pointed to sex-biased survival being driven by reduced female survival post-reproduction. Male-biased ASR was associated with reduced harem sizes, an increase in the number of social groups on the island, and reduced reproduction in young females. Our results support the idea that male-biased ASR in feral ungulate populations may be caused by a combination of high population density and high reproductive output. We suggest that female-biased mortality may be caused by females continuing to reproduce at high density, and thus being more susceptible to resource shortages. Thus, our results highlight the strong context dependence of ASR. Furthermore, our work indicates the potential for ASR to substantially alter a population's social organisation. Such changes in social structure could have knock-on consequences for demography by altering the formation/stability of social relationships, or competition for matings.

Quantitative genetics of gastrointestinal strongyle burden and associated body condition in feral horses.

Variability in host resistance or tolerance to parasites is nearly ubiquitous, and is of key significance in understanding the evolutionary processes shaping host-parasite interactions. While ample research has been conducted on the genetics of parasite burden in livestock, relatively little has been done in free-living populations. Here, we investigate the sources of (co)variation in strongyle nematode faecal egg count (FEC) and body condition in Sable Island horses, a feral population in which parasite burden has previously been shown to negatively correlate with body condition. We used the quantitative genetic "animal model" to understand the sources of (co)variation in these traits, and tested for impacts of an important spatial gradient in habitat quality on the parameter estimates. Although FEC is significantly heritable (h 2 = 0.43 ±â€¯0.11), there was no evidence for significant additive genetic variation in body condition (h 2 = 0.04 ±â€¯0.07), and therefore there was also no significant genetic covariance between the two traits. The negative phenotypic covariance between these traits therefore does not derive principally from additive genetic effects. We also found that both FEC and body condition increase from east to west across the island, which indicates that the longitudinal environmental gradient is not responsible for the negative phenotypic association observed between these traits. There was also little evidence to suggest that quantitative genetic parameters were biased when an individual's location along the island's environmental gradient was not incorporated into the analysis. This research provides new and important insights into the genetic basis and adaptive potential of parasite resistance in free-living animals, and highlights the importance of environmental heterogeneity in modulating host-parasite interactions in wild vertebrate systems.

Declining home range area predicts reduced late-life survival in two wild ungulate populations.

Demographic senescence is increasingly recognised as an important force shaping the dynamics of wild vertebrate populations. However, our understanding of the processes that underpin these declines in survival and fertility in old age remains limited. Evidence for age-related changes in foraging behaviour and habitat use is emerging from wild vertebrate studies, but the extent to which these are driven by within-individual changes, and the consequences for fitness, remain unclear. Using longitudinal census observations collected over four decades from two long-term individual-based studies of unmanaged ungulates, we demonstrate consistent within-individual declines in home range area with age in adult females. In both systems, we found that within-individual decreases in home range area were associated with increased risk of mortality the following year. Our results provide the first evidence from the wild that age-related changes in space use are predictive of adult mortality.

Sex differences in relationships between habitat use and reproductive performance in Soay sheep (Ovis aries).

The role of habitat use in generating individual variation in fitness has rarely been examined empirically in natural populations of long-lived mammals, particularly for both sexes simultaneously. This is the case despite the increase in studies attempting to understand evolutionary change in such populations. Using data from the St. Kilda Soay sheep population, we quantified the association between lifetime reproductive performance (lifetime breeding and reproductive success) and the proportion of the home range covered by a key grass species, H. lanatus, for 490 females and 304 males. Increased H. lanatus cover was associated only with increased female lifetime reproductive success, but increased lifetime breeding success for both sexes, arising through increased male longevity and increased female fecundity. This work suggests that improved understanding of the causes and consequences of fitness differences will likely require us to better account for habitat-derived individual variation, and to do so for the sexes appropriately.

Asynchrony of senescence among phenotypic traits in a wild mammal population.

The degree to which changes in lifespan are coupled to changes in senescence in different physiological systems and phenotypic traits is a central question in biogerontology. It is underpinned by deeper biological questions about whether or not senescence is a synchronised process, or whether levels of synchrony depend on species or environmental context. Understanding how natural selection shapes patterns of synchrony in senescence across physiological systems and phenotypic traits demands the longitudinal study of many phenotypes under natural conditions. Here, we examine the patterns of age-related variation in late adulthood in a wild population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) that have been the subject of individual-based monitoring for thirty years. We examined twenty different phenotypic traits in both males and females, encompassing vital rates (survival and fecundity), maternal reproductive performance (offspring birth weight, birth date and survival), male rutting behaviour, home range measures, parasite burdens, and body mass. We initially quantified age-related variation in each trait having controlled for annual variation in the environment, among-individual variation and selective disappearance effects. We then standardised our age-specific trait means and tested whether age trajectories could be meaningfully grouped according to sex or the type of trait. Whilst most traits showed age-related declines in later life, we found striking levels of asynchrony both within and between the sexes. Of particular note, female fecundity and reproductive performance declined with age, but male annual reproductive success did not. We also discovered that whilst home range size and quality decline with age in females, home range size increases with age in males. Our findings highlight the complexity of phenotypic ageing under natural conditions and, along with emerging data from other wild populations and laboratory models, suggest that the long-standing hypothesis within evolutionary biology that fitness-related traits should senesce in a synchronous manner is seriously flawed.